WEB Notes: Nothing goes up in a linear fashion except for taxes and your age. The stock market has been at record highs for quite some time now, at some point it will comeback down. Markets always move up and down.
Investors may be in for disappointing market returns in the decade to come with valuations at levels this high, if history is any indication.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs pointed out that annualized returns on the S&P 500 10 years out were in the single digits or negative 99 percent of the time when starting with valuations at current levels.
In a chart, they point out that the S&P’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) is currently around its highest historical levels. CAPE is a widely followed valuation metric developed by Nobel Prize winners John Campbell and Robert Shiller.